Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.003579 0.003916 0.004277 0.004691 0.005156 0.005663 0.006259
2025-12-14 0.002974 0.003439 0.003971 0.004629 0.005426 0.006366 0.007572
2025-12-21 0.002597 0.003113 0.003730 0.004531 0.005553 0.006831 0.008573
2025-12-28 0.002345 0.002892 0.003569 0.004483 0.005702 0.007298 0.009592
2026-01-04 0.002181 0.002755 0.003490 0.004515 0.005936 0.007878 0.010810
2026-01-11 0.002013 0.002595 0.003358 0.004456 0.006028 0.008258 0.011775
2026-01-18 0.001877 0.002465 0.003253 0.004416 0.006134 0.008657 0.012800
2026-01-25 0.001756 0.002342 0.003146 0.004360 0.006203 0.008998 0.013766
2026-02-01 0.001669 0.002262 0.003090 0.004370 0.006368 0.009494 0.015036
2026-02-08 0.001574 0.002161 0.002997 0.004316 0.006423 0.009815 0.016044
2026-02-15 0.001482 0.002059 0.002894 0.004236 0.006427 0.010049 0.016918
2026-02-22 0.001427 0.002009 0.002865 0.004266 0.006611 0.010598 0.018437
2026-03-01 0.001394 0.001992 0.002887 0.004388 0.006970 0.011512 0.020840
2026-03-08 0.001320 0.001908 0.002803 0.004330 0.007019 0.011881 0.022231
2026-03-15 0.001245 0.001819 0.002704 0.004239 0.006999 0.012117 0.023379
2026-03-22 0.001187 0.001752 0.002636 0.004196 0.007058 0.012505 0.024919
2026-03-29 0.001149 0.001714 0.002612 0.004225 0.007253 0.013182 0.027222
2026-04-05 0.001097 0.001652 0.002544 0.004170 0.007283 0.013526 0.028804
2026-04-12 0.001052 0.001598 0.002488 0.004134 0.007344 0.013939 0.030629
2026-04-19 0.001008 0.001544 0.002426 0.004082 0.007368 0.014276 0.032319
2026-04-26 0.000977 0.001511 0.002399 0.004092 0.007517 0.014902 0.034897
2026-05-03 0.000938 0.001462 0.002342 0.004041 0.007537 0.015239 0.036749
2026-05-10 0.000898 0.001409 0.002276 0.003967 0.007501 0.015441 0.038260